Secret 10 billion funds and their helmsman have different annual styles in the past six years
Secret 10 billion funds and their helmsman have different annual styles in the past six years
Original Title:[Depth]Demystifying the Ten Billion Fund and their helm Source: Interface Journalist | Editing by Huang Huiling | Song Yan After five years, the Ten Billion Fund Club has been lively again.
Towards the end of 2019, we visited the club.
”Scale over capacity” Because of its impressive target volume, Ten Billion Fund was doomed to be watched and controversial from the moment it was born.
Facing the “tonnage” of 35.6 billion, it is well-suited (163417.
OF) faces the most pressure.
In January 2018, driven by the enthusiasm of 11 Lianyang in the market and the promotion of channels, Xingquan Heyi was born out of nowhere, becoming the largest equity-based new fund in nearly 11 years.
It was born in the eager anticipation of the people, but was surrounded by public opinion in a cloud-covered market: in April of the same year, Xingquan was worth 0.
The price of 96 yuan went on the market and was hit on the limit board.
A few days later, Jimin’s panic on the limit has not yet dissipated. ZTE (000063) is a heavy stock.
SZ) Suspension of trading due to the “Black Swan” caused the funds to lower their estimates.
Although Xingquan Heyi had only 1 position at the time.
49%, individual stocks have far less impact on the fund than some small funds with heavy positions.
But from an absolute point of view, holding a ZTE market value of 400 million is enough to arouse public opinion.
It’s too easy to criticize a big fund.
Blood loss of 300 million!
Made 300 million?
Hey, it’s only gone up a little!
Xingquan is bitter in heart, but it cannot be said.
Who makes it a Big Mac?
Steering a billion-dollar fund has never been easier.
Even Xing Zhiyu, Xingquan’s investment director, must abandon Xingquan’s light assets for six years to maintain Xingquan’s suitability with the power of the company.
Perhaps it is the lessons learned from Xingquan, Ruiyuan’s growth value (007119.
OF) Proportional placement was set at the time of declaration, and over 70 billion subscription funds finally accepted only 60 billion.
After the open subscription, the fund will continue to be placed on a pro rata basis, and the daily subscription amount cannot exceed 1,000 yuan.
At the end of the third quarter of this year, the fund size exceeded 10 billion yuan.
In November, Ruiyuan hired another fund manager, and Fu Pengbo brought the novice fund manager together to manage Ruiyuan’s growth value.
Also cautious about scale is the Central European Era Pioneer (001938).
At the end of the third quarter, it just broke through the tens of billions mark and is a new member of the club.
At the end of 2015, the Sino-European Times Pioneer was established in the form of an initiative fund.
At that time, Zhou Yingbo was a novice fund manager and bought 7 million yuan of his own products.
It took four years for the pioneer of the China-Europe era to grow from a start-up fund to a tens of billions of funds.
In the past four years, the fund’s performance is very good, and the retracement is also small.
However, Zhou Yingbo always felt that he was not doing well enough and the scale exceeded his ability.
In four years, the fund has been restricting subscriptions for two and a half years, and some of them have directly suspended subscriptions for nearly six months.
In the second half of 2018, the China-Europe Times Pioneer Quarterly began to express concern about scale.It records in detail its turnover rate, how much it was last quarter, and how much it has fallen this quarter.
In the fund prospectus, one of the facts included in the fund manager’s refusal to purchase is that “the size of the fund’s assets is too large, preventing the fund manager from finding suitable investment products, or other factors that may affect the performance of the fund or cause other damage.There is the essence of funds sharing the interests of holders. ”
At that time, its scale was less than 2.5 billion, and there was a long way to go before it reached the ten billion level.
This is the real problem of large-scale funds: there are not so many stocks to buy.
In accordance with the “Double Ten Rules” of public funds and the restrictions on the proportion of open shares held, if you buy a small-cap stock, you accidentally exceed the standard.
Sell a small-cap stock and smash the front in a minute.
The past performance of the CEIBS Pioneer has benefited from the flexible capture of stock re-opportunities, including serial small cap stocks.
However, by growing in scale, it must try new styles.
Starting from the second half of 2018, it gradually turned to large-cap stocks.
By the end of the third quarter of this year, the ratio of large and small disks is six or four.
Some funds do not have such troubles.
They seem to be born for scale: they do not change hands all year round and prefer large-cap stocks, similar to Yi Fangda (110022).
Others are that the fund manager is a long-time veteran driver, just like Liu Yanchun of Invesco Great Wall. He was a novice fund manager 11 years ago and he managed billions of funds.
Cold bench of old drivers These old drivers have been sitting on the cold bench for many years in the era of rampant stocks.
In recent years, it has suddenly become a guest of the tens of billions of clubs.
Ten billion fund list in the past six years: The above table is a list of ten billion fund in the past six years. The red color indicates the fund whose size exceeded 10 billion at least twice during the statistical period.
It can be seen that in 2014, the blue chip was the main focus; in 2015, it was replaced by a new fund of Yishuier; in 2016, the quantitative fund became popular.
In 2017, the “Beautiful 50” came to the fore, and also from that year, a new trend emerged: the ten billion fund team has gradually stabilized, and a large expansion has occurred this year.
Today, of the 12 funds ranked in the tens of billions, half are regular customers and half are new customers.
The total scale reached 184.9 billion.
The short-term prominence may be a survivor’s bias, but the reason for the continued performance is worth asking.
Is it luck or skill?
What investors most want to know is, will such good performance continue in the future?
Before answering this question, let’s take a look at their performance in the past few years: before 2017, most of them were less than 3 billion.
The scale is directly linked to performance. In 2015, when the Shanghai stock index rushed to 5,000 points, only Huitianfu (519069).
OF) yield reached 64%, other funds only 20-30%.
Looking back on that year, when various legends of cattle capture were staged in the market, Yi Fangda Zhang Kun and Xiao Nan had not been noticed.
At that time, Zhang Kun said, “Many small and medium-sized market capitalization stocks have been given high growth expectations. With such high estimates and expectations, it is doubtful whether the future can be realized.
“Xiao Nan’s attitude looked like a lemon essence at the time.
“If it weren’t for their current popularity, we might never have read these words in tens of thousands of reports.
Fortunately, these fund managers didn’t get the rhythm of the market before they got the results.
”It would be better to wait patiently with a shotgun in the cold wind, than to sweat and sprint up and down the garbage dump-even at times it looks profitable.
In 2017, the structural bull market in which A-shares grew with a round of superior stocks and junk stocks fell, realizing a beautiful chaos anyway.
Liu Yanchun felt that A shares opened the first year of fundamentals.
At the end of the year, he weighed optimistically: “In the context of sustained and stable economic growth and relatively stable capital prices, professional investors will have a lot of work to do.
“Unexpectedly, the market opened higher and lower in 2018.
He can only sigh: “Macro judgment is always difficult.
China’s development process is unique, always crossing the river by feeling the stones.Even the basic question of what is expensive and what is cheap is difficult to answer.
“Buying a fund is buying people.
Faced with the ever-changing “girly heart”, the common characteristics of this year’s old drivers are: don’t guess the market, focus on research, and have patience.
Like middle-aged people who are emotionally restrained, they are a little dull and boring.
Zhang Kun, the appraisal in the workshop is a weird, he doesn’t like to be interviewed by the media, and institutional investors don’t like communication when they come to the company.
With a passion for reading, he recorded the words of Tokugawa Ieyasu in his reading notes: “Life is as heavy as a burden, so you must not be impatient.
“Liu Yanchun, a 43-year-old master of management, is better at writing than arts students.”
It is a golden sentence to write at will, and the quarterly report can be used as a speech: “We are all looking forward to radical reforms, but at the same time we should understand that the road to reform is tortuous.
Reform should be implemented incrementally without necessarily reaching the bottom line of systemic risk.
For the investors in the capital market, it may be necessary to accept and understand such a reality. Progressive reform may exceed expectations, but from the perspective of the operation of a country system,You must be patient while moving.
“Xiao Nan is the most determined of the Buddhism.
He has been in charge of E Fund for seven years, Gree Electric (000651).
SZ), Maotai, Guizhou (600519.
SH), Midea Group (000333.
SZ), Yili (600887) These stocks have been heavy for at least six years.
“If asked tomorrow, next week, next month and so on for short-term continuous performance, my answer will never be known.
But if you ask about the performance of more consecutive segments, about 3-5 years, I am very confident about the stocks I have selected, and believe that the combination can bring a good level of returns.
“What will this ten billion fund buy?
If you look at the past investment of this session of the 10 billion fund, you will find that many investment decisions have begun many years ago, and the investment style has been precipitated and gradually formed over the years.
After entering billions of biology, fund managers’ trading has become more and more thoughtful.
At the same time, the total scale of nearly 200 billion yuan determines their natural influence on the market.
As soon as the tens of billions of funds were shot, Maotai would shake.
What stocks did the 10 billion fund buy this time?
Let’s take a look: the above table sorts out the stocks that have been heavily held by at least two tens of billions of funds.
At first glance, they are recognized as the leading horse stocks.
They are also called “core assets” and have been a hot topic in the market in the past two years.
It is not difficult to find the core assets, the hard thing is to understand the core assets.
Consumption has been rising and Moutai has been refreshing. Can these futures still rise?
Xiao Nan will be asked such questions every year.
He thinks there is an implicit assumption in this question, “This is a speculative thinking of prices-that is, judging the future based on historical performance.
“” There is no causality between past prices and future prices, not even the related relationship.
Hao Shou Poor Economy researching various curves in the market is really a low cost performance.
He firmly believes that in the long run, what determines a company’s previous return is its inherent continuous profitability.
Regarding the Chinese stock market, Xiao Nan said that he should “research more questions and talk less about doctrine.”
Ranking research philosophy, he prefers to decompose investment decisions into small problems, and accumulate research into solutions.
“Investors often face a change in market style and their own ideas.
I don’t think I can make a list of problems and study them one by one.
Understanding a technological process, clarifying a business model, and discovering a questionable financial report may all change our investment decisions.
In a 2013 article, Zhang Kun concluded that A-share investors prefer small companies. The logic is that small companies have a small base and rapid growth, which is in line with the direction of economic change. Overseas investors prefer large companies because large enterprise industries avoid more solid, Strong bargaining power and good sustainable growth.
“In short, A-share investors are more concerned about the speed of growth, and overseas investors are more concerned about the endurance of growth.
“Through the acceleration of the internationalization of A-shares, the aesthetics of A-share institutional investors represented by 10 billion funds is moving closer to overseas investors.
And Zhang Kun himself, from the beginning, also constantly compared the estimates and costs of the large, medium and small markets, and ultimately chose to “persist in selecting excellent companies” in the context of “the gradual slowdown of the Chinese economy.”
“Conclusion: In addition to the above 10 billion funds, there are a large number of old funds that may cross the 10 billion mark at any time.
Zhu Shaoxing’s Rich Country Tianhui (161005.
OF) has exceeded 9 billion yuan, Huaan strategy is preferred (040008).
OF), Invesco Great Wall Dingyi (162605.
OF), Huitianfu Growth Focus (519068.
OF) followed closely.
China bonus (002011.
OF), a new horizon (001511).
OF), Dongfanghong Industry Upgrade (001511.
OF), Huitianfu Consumer Industry (000083.
OF), Huitian Fumei (30000173.
OF), Yinhua Wealthy Theme (180012.
OF), Oriental Red China Advantage (001112.
OF), Oriental Red Shanghai, Hong Kong and Shenzhen (002803.
OF), GF’s steady growth (270002.
OF), Huitianfu Medical Services (001417.
OF) and other scales have exceeded 7 billion yuan.
Continuous marketing is always more difficult to scale up than a new fund.
From the steady increase in the size of the old funds, we can see that the market is rewarding those old funds that have sharpened their swords in ten years.
If the fund also has the concept of “core assets”, it will have a lot in common with the core assets of stocks: they will not look cool at all, there will be no counterattack plot, no small and beautiful compelling, but they all have difficult to copyCompetition, in the long run, can bring great returns to investors, and they are highly sought after by investors.
The difference is that stock prices fluctuate, and being highly sought after will be unbearable.
The fund will not be overvalued. If you do not add subjective timing, excellent funds are worth buying at any time.
Leaping forward, not ten steps;
Life is as heavy as a burden, so don’t be impatient.
So is the fate of the fund.
For this session of the 10 billion fund and the funds on the 10 billion road, 10 billion is not the top of the scale, but the starting point of a new stage.
Among those funds and fund managers who are diligent and enthusiastic, they will step out of the core assets of the fund sector.
Whether the market will never go downwind or upwind, time will eventually be on their side.
(Note: The non-national team’s active equity funds described in this article include ordinary stocks, mixed stocks, flexible allocations, and balanced mixes.